Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 35.652934 38.541004 41.712483 45.485136 49.893395 54.936740 61.226354
2025-08-31 31.306834 35.042575 39.415058 45.014329 52.158028 61.219771 74.049413
2025-09-07 29.221519 33.468610 38.658521 45.662340 55.211307 68.384096 89.272642
2025-09-14 27.234660 31.689617 37.300117 45.164906 56.441305 73.082000 102.213055
2025-09-21 25.394771 29.881564 35.655725 43.979839 56.381530 75.694315 112.490238
2025-09-28 23.913213 28.397939 34.273754 42.947289 56.307218 78.147137 123.285632
2025-10-05 23.614500 28.426860 34.903070 44.815493 60.909077 89.423937 157.696930
2025-10-12 23.034869 28.019751 34.869048 45.659248 63.956039 98.735857 194.835510
2025-10-19 22.470604 27.585688 34.745092 46.323377 66.773284 108.441675 243.350668
2025-10-26 21.868361 27.054406 34.427784 46.625056 68.962716 117.527169 303.404063
2025-11-02 21.095797 26.235250 33.620757 46.030618 69.346946 122.520870 356.265880
2025-11-09 20.251931 25.272535 32.538343 44.875266 68.460882 124.077640 395.983043
2025-11-16 19.478907 24.413149 31.617848 44.014834 68.253643 128.010030 469.554722
2025-11-23 18.848081 23.736588 30.946049 43.539475 68.808137 134.503372 600.078678
2025-11-30 18.513403 23.475629 30.899160 44.153527 71.793267 149.886366 1000.590709
2025-12-07 17.973788 22.882742 30.288392 43.683984 72.280574 157.492645 1509.149296
2025-12-14 17.338052 22.120074 29.366351 42.565051 71.100948 158.695186 1978.233405
2025-12-21 16.771863 21.442470 28.551134 41.589084 70.139156 160.493737 2829.506015
2025-12-28 16.781443 21.636403 29.158857 43.354212 76.155782 195.202012 NaN
2026-01-04 16.601715 21.529979 29.261780 44.150397 79.941776 225.014489 NaN
2026-01-11 16.400008 21.379610 29.279984 44.776643 83.438459 258.848254 NaN
2026-01-18 16.150582 21.143751 29.138396 45.060986 86.054926 292.359460 NaN
2026-01-25 15.776245 20.697453 28.613116 44.500631 86.072802 307.506696 NaN